A manager tends to rely on their own judgment and overestimate their accuracy, even when evidence suggests otherwise.

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Overconfidence bias shows up when someone places too much faith in their own judgments and overestimates how accurate they are, even in the face of evidence that says otherwise. In this scenario, the manager relies on their own judgment and believes they’re right despite contrary data, which is exactly the hallmark of overconfidence bias. In management decisions, this can lead to ignoring evidence, discounting feedback, and making bold calls without adequate validation. The other biases would lead to different patterns—anchoring sticks you to an initial piece of information, framing bias shifts choices based on how a problem is presented, and representativeness bias (a tendency to judge likelihood by similarity to a stereotype) doesn’t capture the persistence of overestimating one’s own accuracy.