Alberto is a manager who tends to think he knows more than he does. He is most likely exhibiting ________.

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Multiple Choice

Alberto is a manager who tends to think he knows more than he does. He is most likely exhibiting ________.

Overconfidence bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s own knowledge, abilities, or the accuracy of one’s judgments. Alberto’s pattern—believing he knows more than he actually does—captures this idea: he enters decisions with unwarranted certainty, may discount input from others, and relies more on his own assumptions than on data or feedback. In management, this can lead to risky choices, inadequate planning, and limited learning from mistakes because the person isn’t properly calibrating their confidence to actual competence. Hindsight bias would involve saying a past outcome was predictable after it happened, not misjudging current knowledge. Sunk cost bias is sticking with a project because of prior investments, not because of current knowledge about capabilities. Anchoring bias is clinging to an initial number or impression and not adjusting adequately with new information. The situation described fits overconfidence best because the core issue is overestimating one’s own knowledge.

Overconfidence bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s own knowledge, abilities, or the accuracy of one’s judgments. Alberto’s pattern—believing he knows more than he actually does—captures this idea: he enters decisions with unwarranted certainty, may discount input from others, and relies more on his own assumptions than on data or feedback. In management, this can lead to risky choices, inadequate planning, and limited learning from mistakes because the person isn’t properly calibrating their confidence to actual competence.

Hindsight bias would involve saying a past outcome was predictable after it happened, not misjudging current knowledge. Sunk cost bias is sticking with a project because of prior investments, not because of current knowledge about capabilities. Anchoring bias is clinging to an initial number or impression and not adjusting adequately with new information. The situation described fits overconfidence best because the core issue is overestimating one’s own knowledge.

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