Which decision-making bias refers to a decision maker's tendency to assess how likely something is to happen or how closely it resembles other events or sets of events?

• A. Anchoring bias
• B. Availability bias
• C. Confirmation bias
• D. Representation bias

Answer: (D)

This question targets representativeness bias, the tendency to judge how likely something is to happen by how closely it resembles a familiar category or prototype. Instead of using actual probabilities or base rates, people rely on similarity to a known pattern, which can lead to errors when a rare event seems like a typical case or when a common event doesn’t fit the stereotype. For example, if someone fits a stereotype of a programmer—quiet, analytical, loves problem-solving—you might assume they’re a programmer even if the base rates in the population make that unlikely. In the scenario, the focus is on assessing likelihood through resemblance to other events or categories, which is the hallmark of the representativeness heuristic. This differs from anchoring (sticking to initial numbers), availability (relying on what’s most memorable), or confirmation bias (seeking information that confirms beliefs).